我曾看过数千份来自早期创业企业的财务规划。我敢保证——100%肯定——没有一份是准确的。
来源：《创业邦》 作者：Brad Feld
可否听到过这种要求：“你能不能结合印尼汇率的波动、中国茶叶现价、上个月Serengeti国家公园内迁徙的角马数量来重新做一份2009年的收支预测？”如果你正在接触的风险投资人突然甩出诸如此类不着边际的要求，赶紧撤吧，可别再浪费时间了。这意味着，对方完全没有进入状态，换句话说：“他对你根本没多大兴趣。”
我曾看过数千份来自早期创业企业的财务规划。我敢保证——100%肯定——没有一份是准确的。非常优秀的创业者通常（但也不总是）能控制好前一两年内的成本规划，但我从没见过任何人能成功预测未来的收入，尤其是那些从零开始的新手。
理性的风险投资人都明白，早期阶段做出的财务规划最后都会遭遇变数。他们期待的其实并不是一个准确无误的数字，而是想从中了解你如何看待自己的企业。运营模式和预测方法不能有结构性问题，要包含正确的收入和成本要素，要根据企业类型制定合理的现金流模式，然后用一系列假设情况来预测企业未来发展，这些假设情况必须明确地标明。尽管如此，最重要的也并非最终得出的那些数字，而是你对不同因素及各因素间互动关系的理解。
我个人最喜欢那些只用一块白板就能把企业情况介绍清楚的早期创业者，别动不动就是长达40多页的Excel电子表格，而且每次打印出来页码都是乱七八糟。这些人不会专门雇个CFO或金融专业人士来解释各种经济模型的复杂意义，也不会认为我能看清投影在15英尺外的密密麻麻的8号小字。这些创业者只靠自己对企业的了解，就为我解释清楚为什么他们认为会成功。
如果你的公司现在已经度过了早期发展阶段，经营历史超过5年，那么历史财务纪录和预测模型会很重要，而且是可行的。注意我说的是“可行”，而不是说“一定可以预测”。正在眼下这场金融风暴中挣扎的创业者都该有所体会，有些因素是可控的（比如成本），但更多是无法控制的（比如客户是否还有钱来捧你的场）。只要你把重心放在可控因素部分，然后尽量把不可控因素解释清楚，这就是个好模式。
在接触过程中，假如风险投资人反复在问你财务模型的问题，那就先反问一下对方具体想了解什么。想办法通过对话方式找出对方真正关心的地方，同时借机让对方看到你对企业经营中相关的经济问题了如指掌。如果对方不想和你谈，多半是因为对你根本没兴趣。
原文：Is Your VC Into You?
Know how to discern whether your VC gets it or if it's time to look for financing elsewhere.
By Brad Feld
Have you heard this before: "Can you produce another forecast for the balance of 2009 taking into account the fluctuation of the exchange rate in Indonesia, the current price of tea in China and the number of wildebeests that migrated across the Serengeti last month?" If a prospective VC investor says something like that to you, run. He doesn't get it. And as the saying goes, "He's just not that into you."
I've seen thousands of financial plans for young startups. I can assure you--with 100 percent certainty--that they are never correct. A great entrepreneur can usually (but not always) manage the first year or two of the expense plan. However, I've never met an entrepreneur who can predict the revenue plan, especially in cases where he's starting from a revenue base of zero.
A rational VC investor knows that an early stage financial plan is going to be wrong. He's not looking for a correct number; rather, he's looking to see how you think about your business. Your operating model and forecast should be structurally correct, contain the right elements of revenue and expenses, have a logical cash-flow model that is linked to the type of business you have, and put forth a clear set of assumptions that drive the growth of the business. However, the final numbers aren't what counts--it's your understanding of the different pieces and how they interact.
My favorite early stage entrepreneurs are the ones who can explain their business on a whiteboard. They don't need a 42-page Excel spreadsheet that never paginates quite right when you print it to guide them. They don't need a CFO or other finance person to explain the intricacies of their model. They don't assume I can read eight-point text projected on a screen 15 feet away. They just know their business and can speak eloquently about how they think it's going to work.
Now, if you're a later-stage company that has at least five years of operating history, the historical financials and forecasting models will have more importance and a higher degree of relevance. Note that I said relevance, not predictability. As anyone who has tried to manage a business through the current downturn knows, there are some factors you can control (such as your expenses) and many you can't (such as whether or not your customers have any money to spend with you). If you focus on the things you can control and explain clearly the things you can't, your model will always be a better one.
When you're raising money and your prospective venture capitalist asks for the seventh iteration of your financial model, ask him specifically what he's trying to understand. Try to engage in a conversation that helps you figure out his concerns and helps him know that you really do understand the economics underlying your business. If he's not willing to do this, he's probably not that into you.
